With the NRL hitting the halfway mark, it’s time to crunch the numbers on who can and cannot lift the trophy on grand final night unless they rewrite the record books.
For the third season in a row, the “key performance indicators” of a title-winning team in the NRL era have been entered into the Predictatron 3000 to come up with the five teams who are on track to be premiers.
For the uninitiated, the KPIs are based on all the premiers since 1998 (excluding the dodgy ones in 2007 and 2009 that don’t count despite what Melbourne Storm might try to tell you).
These 13 indicators add up to bad news for 12 of the 17 teams who will need to do what no team has done since 1998 in at least one of these categories.
For any doubters out there, when this system was first applied at the halfway point in 2023, eventual premiers Penrith, the Broncos, Rabbitohs and Sharks were statistically likely to be the last team standing on grand final night and last year the list unsurprisingly included the Panthers along with Melbourne, Cronulla, Brisbane and the Roosters.
So without further ado, Survivor style, using these historical pointers, here’s why just five clubs – including one absolute dark horse – have history on their side as they chase the Provan-Summons Trophy.
Key performance indicators for premiers
Lead-up form
The premiers each year since 1998 have made the finals the year before apart from Penrith in 2003, (who were 12th in 2002), the Wests Tigers two years later (ninth the previous season) and the Roosters of 2013 (up from 13th).
A total of 73% of premiers in the NRL era finished in the top four the previous year.
If you aren’t in the top eight, you are barely in the race with the ‘05 Tigers (11th) the only anomaly on that front.
If you don’t make the top four at the end of the season, you have Buckley’s chance of becoming champions with Canterbury’s astounding run in 1995 the most recent example of a team going all the way despite finishing in the lower half of the finals bracket.
| Year | Premiers | Previous season | Halfway mark of season | Regular season finish |
| 1998 | Broncos | Premiers | 5th | 1st |
| 1999 | Storm | 3rd | 3rd | 3rd |
| 2000 | Broncos | 8th | 1st | 1st |
| 2001 | Knights | 3rd | 1st | 3rd |
| 2002 | Roosters | 6th | 6th | 4th |
| 2003 | Panthers | 12th | 3rd | 1st |
| 2004 | Bulldogs | 3rd | 2nd | 2nd |
| 2005 | Tigers | 9th | 11th | 4th |
| 2006 | Broncos | 3rd | 1st | 3rd |
| 2007 | Storm* | Minor premiers | 1st | 1st |
| 2008 | Sea Eagles | 2nd | 1st | 2nd |
| 2009 | Storm* | Minor premiers | 6th | 4th |
| 2010 | Dragons | Minor premiers | 1st | 1st |
| 2011 | Sea Eagles | 8th | 3rd | 2nd |
| 2012 | Storm | Minor premiers | 1st | 2nd |
| 2013 | Roosters | 13th | 3rd | 1st |
| 2014 | Rabbitohs | 2nd | 5th | 3rd |
| 2015 | Cowboys | 5th | 2nd | 3rd |
| 2016 | Sharks | 6th | 1st | 3rd |
| 2017 | Storm | 2nd | 1st | 1st |
| 2018 | Roosters | 2nd | 7th | 1st |
| 2019 | Roosters | Premiers | 3rd | 2nd |
| 2020 | Storm | 2nd | 3rd | 2nd |
| 2021 | Panthers | 2nd | 1st | 2nd |
| 2022 | Panthers | Premiers | 1st | 1st |
| 2023 | Panthers | Premiers | 1st | 1st |
| 2024 | Panthers | Premiers | 3rd | 2nd |
Storm’s 2007 and ’09 premierships were stripped after they had won the Grand Final for salary cap rorting
Attack and defence
Only four of the past 27 grand final-winning sides didn’t finish in the top four for points scored – the 2002 Roosters (sixth), ‘06 Broncos (12th) the Dragons in 2010 (eighth) and last year’s Panthers (sixth).
On the defensive side, five teams have won the title after not being in the top four for points conceded – the 1999 Storm outfit, Newcastle (ninth) in 2001, the ‘03 Panthers (seventh), the ‘05 Tigers (10th) and the Cowboys (fifth) of 2015.
The NRL folklore that says you are no hope if you have 50 put on you in the regular season holds true which is bad news for a few teams who have had a half-century racked up against them this year.
The top four attacking teams heading into this week’s Round 14 are the Storm (31.3), Sea Eagles (31), Broncos (29.5) and Bulldogs (24) while the best in defence are the Bulldogs (18.36), Knights (19) and Storm 19.91 with the Warriors and Manly equal fourth at 20.5.
| Year | Premiers | Rank in attack | Rank in defence | Highest score | Most points conceded |
| 1998 | Broncos | 1st | 1st | 60 | 28 |
| 1999 | Storm | 1st | 5th | 62 | 34 |
| 2000 | Broncos | 1st | 1st | 56 | 28 |
| 2001 | Knights | 2nd | 9th | 60 | 49 |
| 2002 | Roosters | 6th | 1st | 58 | 48 |
| 2003 | Panthers | 3rd | 7th | 52 | 42 |
| 2004 | Bulldogs | 1st | 3rd | 54 | 40 |
| 2005 | Tigers | 2nd | 10th | 54 | 44 |
| 2006 | Broncos | 12th | 1st | 50 | 36 |
| 2007 | Storm* | 1st | 1st | 58 | 30 |
| 2008 | Sea Eagles | 1st | 2nd | 52 | 40 |
| 2009 | Storm* | 11th | 2nd | 48 | 26 |
| 2010 | Dragons | 8th | 1st | 38 | 32 |
| 2011 | Sea Eagles | 1st | 2nd | 42 | 32 |
| 2012 | Storm | 2nd | 1st | 46 | 40 |
| 2013 | Roosters | 1st | 1st | 56 | 32 |
| 2014 | Rabbitohs | 3rd | 1st | 50 | 30 |
| 2015 | Cowboys | 2nd | 5th | 50 | 44 |
| 2016 | Sharks | 3rd | 2nd | 62 | 32 |
| 2017 | Storm | 1st | 1st | 64 | 38 |
| 2018 | Roosters | 4th | 1st | 56 | 30 |
| 2019 | Roosters | 2nd | 2nd | 58 | 38 |
| 2020 | Storm | 3rd | 2nd | 50 | 30 |
| 2021 | Panthers | 4th | 1st | 56 | 37 |
| 2022 | Panthers | 1st | 1st | 46 | 38 |
| 2023 | Panthers | 1st | 1st | 53 | 32 |
| 2024 | Panthers | 6th | 1st | 46 | 34 |
For and against
You have to finish at least 100 points up in for and against at the end of the regular season to be in the title hunt.
It’s been a pretty even competition in 2025 with only Melbourne (+147) in triple figures with the Bulldogs (+74) and Raiders (+72) the two other sides who are over 50.
| Year | Premiers | F&A differential |
| 1998 | Broncos | 378 |
| 1999 | Storm | 392 |
| 2000 | Broncos | 308 |
| 2001 | Knights | 143 |
| 2002 | Roosters | 216 |
| 2003 | Panthers | 132 |
| 2004 | Bulldogs | 269 |
| 2005 | Tigers | 101 |
| 2006 | Broncos | 105 |
| 2007 | Storm* | 277 |
| 2008 | Sea Eagles | 290 |
| 2009 | Storm* | 157 |
| 2010 | Dragons | 219 |
| 2011 | Sea Eagles | 208 |
| 2012 | Storm | 218 |
| 2013 | Roosters | 315 |
| 2014 | Rabbitohs | 224 |
| 2015 | Cowboys | 133 |
| 2016 | Sharks | 176 |
| 2017 | Storm | 297 |
| 2018 | Roosters | 181 |
| 2019 | Roosters | 264 |
| 2020 | Storm | 258 |
| 2021 | Panthers | 286 |
| 2022 | Panthers | 306 |
| 2023 | Panthers | 333 |
| 2024 | Panthers | 186 |
Home and away record
The benchmark is eight wins during the regular season with only Souths in 2014 with a 7-5 record having a home record below that cut-off point.
All the legit premiers in the NRL era won at least half of their road games.
Of the current top eight, they all have won at least 50% of their home games but four of them – Melbourne, the Cowboys, Manly and St George Illawarra are 2-3 on the road.
| Year | Premiers | Home record | Away record |
| 1998 | Broncos | 10-2 | 8-3 |
| 1999 | Storm | 9-3 | 7-5 |
| 2000 | Broncos | 12-0 | 6-6 |
| 2001 | Knights | 9-4 | 7-5 |
| 2002 | Roosters | 8-3 | 7-5 |
| 2003 | Panthers | 8-4 | 10-2 |
| 2004 | Bulldogs | 11-1 | 8-4 |
| 2005 | Tigers | 8-4 | 6-6 |
| 2006 | Broncos | 8-4 | 6-6 |
| 2007 | Storm* | 12-0 | 9-3 |
| 2008 | Sea Eagles | 9-3 | 8-4 |
| 2009 | Storm* | 9-2 | 5-7 |
| 2010 | Dragons | 9-3 | 8-4 |
| 2011 | Sea Eagles | 11-1 | 7-5 |
| 2012 | Storm | 9-3 | 8-4 |
| 2013 | Roosters | 8-4 | 10-2 |
| 2014 | Rabbitohs | 7-5 | 8-4 |
| 2015 | Cowboys | 8-4 | 9-3 |
| 2016 | Sharks | 11-1 | 6-5 |
| 2017 | Storm | 9-3 | 11-1 |
| 2018 | Roosters | 8-4 | 8-4 |
| 2019 | Roosters | 9-3 | 8-4 |
| 2020 | Storm | 9-1 | 7-3 |
| 2021 | Panthers | 12-0 | 9-3 |
| 2022 | Panthers | 10-2 | 10-2 |
| 2023 | Panthers | 9-3 | 9-3 |
| 2024 | Panthers | 9-3 | 8-4 |
Origin reps, coach’s experience, goal-kicking?
Origin representation does not add up to much when it comes to predicting premiers.
On average, the premiers have just under five Origin reps that season but it is not essential with the Panthers and Tigers premiers from early in the century going unrepresented in the interstate fixtures when they won the title.
The average experience for a coach is a fraction over a decade in charge.
Wayne Bennett, Craig Bellamy and Ivan Cleary are the main reason for that number being so high.
Elite goal-kicking is important but not a total must-have. Only once in the past 12 years has a premiership-winning team struck at below 75%, the 2016 Sharks (73.6).
| Year | Premiers | Origin reps | Coach experience | Goal-kicking % |
| 1998 | Broncos | 11 | 12th season | 67.9 |
| 1999 | Storm | 4 | 10th season | 62.9 |
| 2000 | Broncos | 7 | 14th season | 72.7 |
| 2001 | Knights | 4 | 1st season | 80.6 |
| 2002 | Roosters | 3 | 1st season | 76.7 |
| 2003 | Panthers | 0 | 10th season | 70 |
| 2004 | Bulldogs | 5 | 7th season | 83.2 |
| 2005 | Tigers | 0 | 21st season | 81.6 |
| 2006 | Broncos | 9 | 20th season | 71.2 |
| 2007 | Storm* | 7 | 5th season | 69.2 |
| 2008 | Sea Eagles | 1 | 5th season | 67.3 |
| 2009 | Storm* | 6 | 7th season | 71.5 |
| 2010 | Dragons | 7 | 24th season | 74 |
| 2011 | Sea Eagles | 4 | 8th season | 70.5 |
| 2012 | Storm | 4 | 10th season | 70.9 |
| 2013 | Roosters | 4 | 1st season | 84.1 |
| 2014 | Rabbitohs | 3 | 3rd season | 79.1 |
| 2015 | Cowboys | 4 | 2nd season | 75.6 |
| 2016 | Sharks | 4 | 6th season | 73.6 |
| 2017 | Storm | 6 | 15th season | 75.4 |
| 2018 | Roosters | 3 | 6th season | 74.8 |
| 2019 | Roosters | 3 | 7th season | 75.2 |
| 2020 | Storm | 6 | 18th season | 86.2 |
| 2021 | Panthers | 7 | 15th season | 82 |
| 2022 | Panthers | 7 | 16th season | 83.6 |
| 2023 | Panthers | 6 | 17th season | 80.7 |
| 2024 | Panthers | 5 | 18th season | 78 |
Via process of elimination, who is in the 2024 hunt?
It’s time to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
If nobody has won the comp from 13th or lower the previous year, that means history says the Warriors’ current form won’t last while the Titans, Eels, Rabbitohs and Tigers are making up the numbers.
Bulldogs, Raiders, Warriors, Storm, Sharks, Cowboys, Sea Eagles, Dragons, Rabbitohs, Dolphins, Broncos, Roosters, Tigers, Panthers, Knights, Eels, Titans
If you are 12th or lower at the halfway point of the season, that also rules you out. That means the Roosters, Panthers and Knights (who have each played half of their 24 matches) also fall by the wayside. No five-year dynasty for the Penrith club.
Mitchell Barnett’s ACL tear damages the Warriors’ hopes. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
Bulldogs, Raiders, Warriors, Storm, Sharks, Cowboys, Sea Eagles, Dragons, Rabbitohs, Dolphins, Broncos, Roosters, Tigers, Panthers, Knights, Eels, Titans
Premiership-winning teams can’t be ranked below 12th in attack so that means on current form that’s another reason why the Knights, Eels, Rabbitohs, Titans and Warriors are not in the race.
Bulldogs, Raiders, Warriors, Storm, Sharks, Cowboys, Sea Eagles, Dragons, Rabbitohs, Dolphins, Broncos, Roosters, Tigers, Panthers, Knights, Eels, Titans
Defensively, teams need to be in the top 10 so the Broncos (11th) and Cowboys (16th) get struck off the list of remaining contenders.
Bulldogs, Raiders, Warriors, Storm, Sharks, Cowboys, Sea Eagles, Dragons, Rabbitohs, Dolphins, Broncos, Roosters, Tigers, Panthers, Knights, Eels, Titans
And then there were seven – the Dogs, Raiders, Storm, Sharks, Sea Eagles, Dragons and Dolphins.
If you win a premiership in the NRL, you have to get to at least 38 points in a game – the Dogs, Raiders, Melbourne, Dragons and Dolphins have done so but not so Cronulla even though they’ve hit 30 on four occasions.
Bulldogs, Raiders, Warriors, Storm, Sharks, Cowboys, Sea Eagles, Dragons, Rabbitohs, Dolphins, Broncos, Roosters, Tigers, Panthers, Knights, Eels, Titans
Tom Dearden scores a try against Wests Tigers. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
Going by the time-honoured “have you conceded 50 in a game” test, none of the remaining six teams get eliminated.
Bulldogs, Raiders, Warriors, Storm, Sharks, Cowboys, Sea Eagles, Dragons, Rabbitohs, Dolphins, Broncos, Roosters, Tigers, Panthers, Knights, Eels, Titans
When it comes to overall for and against, the Storm have already cruised past triple figures and the Bulldogs and Raiders are on track. Manly (+46) and the Dolphins (+42) get the benefit of the doubt but St George Illawarra drop off here at (+3) after 11 games.
Bulldogs, Raiders, Warriors, Storm, Sharks, Cowboys, Sea Eagles, Dragons, Rabbitohs, Dolphins, Broncos, Roosters, Tigers, Panthers, Knights, Eels, Titans
If you consider Origin reps to be a strong indicator, the Storm (four) were the only team of this final five who were heavily represented in Origin I.
When it comes to coaching, Craig Bellamy and Ricky Stuart are the most experienced of the remaining group with Kristian Woolf a rookie at the NRL level behind Cameron Ciraldo (third year) and Anthony Seibold (sixth season).
Goal-kicking wise, the Dolphins are the best at 90% with the Bulldogs (85%), Storm (84%), Sea Eagles (80%) and Raiders (79%) also doing well on that front.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow celebrates after scoring. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
The final verdict
So there you have it – you probably didn’t expect the Dolphins to be in with a shot and they’re paying odds of 80-1 if you think the numbers add up to what would be the biggest boilover in two decades.
Melbourne, Canterbury and Canberra are considered the three best shots at the title according to the bookies while Manly are a long shot at 20-1.
The smart money is on a repeat of the 2012 grand final when the Storm matched up against the Bulldogs – it would not be a surprise to see that happen again this time around but for the Raiders, Sea Eagles and Dolphins, statistically they are still in the hunt.
For the other 12 teams, they need to defy history to be the last team standing when the confetti guns blast off at Accor Stadium on grand final night on October 5.
