Don’t Let The Novice Guess!

I am playing in a Unit game and our first round is against some (nice, friendly) novice players. On the first board we are non-vulnerable against vulnerable and I pick up:

S: JT H: x D: QJ32 C: JT7432

I don’t have a philosophical objection to opening this hand 3 Clubs, particularly at this vulnerability. But …. by preempting I will force my opponents to guess, just like every other player in the same situation. They may guess wrong, but they may guess right or (worse yet) get lucky.

For novices, guessing is actually the best part of their game, because they are on an even footing with other players.

Against an expert I’d recite “I am lying to two opponents but only one partner,” under my breath and pre-empt. But since passing is a reasonable alternative, I decide to be disciplined and not-preempt and see what mistakes my opponents can produce.

(Spoiler — I am rewarded beyond my wildest dreams)

It starts well, with my LHO opening 3 Diamonds. I have quite good defense against diamonds, so I don’t expect the good news to last. My partner bids 3 Spades. RHO is clearly under some pressure and bids …. 4 Clubs!

I pass quietly and LHO agonizes for a while and passes. Partner thinks for a bit and …. passes.

Amazing! I was about to open and possibly play three clubs, and now … I get to defend four clubs!

The hand is as brutal as expected and we get them three tricks. Not doubled, but +300 is easily a top. Later on I see that both of my opponents had a problematic hand that would vex even an experienced player.

LHO held S: Q H: Q974 D: AT97654 C: Q

RHO held S: 9xx H: KJTx D: K C: AK98x

LHO’s hand opening 3D is completely reasonable (it’s hard to value those stiff Qs, and Hank’s rule is “seven-four distribution is single suited”). A vulnerable preempt should be somewhat hefty. RHO’s predicament is worse, a hand worth ~15+ points just looking for a place to land. She should probably just pass but 4C is a minor sin. Was there anything to my thinking, or did I just get lucky? Who knows.

On the second hand I’m allowed to make a contract that I shouldn’t, but the defense is tough to spot, so it’s likely average.

On the final hand my RHO opens 3 Clubs and I pick up

S: KQxx H: K9x D: AJx C: Q8x

This is one of those hands where you have to just sigh and bid 3NT. I’m a touch light and in theory I need a better club stopper although in practice Qxx is probably good enough. But apart from the fact that the field should bid 3NT, I’m comforted by the fact that I probably won’t get the most difficult defense. I bid 3NT in full “Hideous Hog” mode, oozing a confidence I don’t feel.

LHO leads the club four and I see that I have guessed wrong when Roxie for once does not put down a few extra honors beyond my expectations.

Dummy S: xxx H: QJxxx D: K9xx C:9

Well, at least she’s not broke, but if LHO had not preempted we’d have bid up to 1NT only.

RHO wins the club ace and returns … the jack.

I don’t think I’m being jobbed. My RHO wouldn’t duck a trick even if it was right. I think LHO has the king, but if I duck they still might not be able to untangle their winners. (The should, if RHO has an ace, but … maybe she doesn’t.)

I duck. LHO wins the king and then …. goes into the tank. This means the hand is now cold … even if RHO has a side ace, that’s not enough entries to set up AND run clubs. It turns out I am correct and 3N rolls home. With clubs breaking Kx – AJTxxxx and RHO having no side ace, 3NT is actually cold against any but the most inspired defense.

As the game goes on I notice that the seating arrangements are incredibly lopsided, and we face another novice pair and no real experts the entire day (the remainders being roughly average).

(One of the “average” pairs perpetrates the following auction:

1S-1N;

6S. Sure opener could have checked for aces, but partner had two aces and a maximum, so it all worked out. Hands like that are infuriating, because they got to the correct place, but only because they got lucky).

Several experts complain on the unfairness of it1 as we post a monstrous score with one round to go.

Sadly we have a bidding snafu in the last round to snatch second place from the jaws of victory. So maybe there was a bit of rough justice from the Bridge Gods.

  1. They are not complaining about us, but about the director who did not balance the seating arrangements. ↩

The Tao of Gaming

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